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Parsing The BTC Tea Leaves – Insights From Technical Analysis

There are some that swear by technical analysis, and some others who can only swear at anything to do with technical analysis, and consider it sophistry of the highest order. Then there is the rest of us between these two poles, that use it for what it is, while being cognizant that the theory of reflexivity is a far more powerful tool, which when used in conjunction with technical analysis can often lead to desirable outcomes.

The recent surge in the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies got many people thinking about whether this could be the beginning of the next sustained Bitcoin rally. While prices have failed to really takeoff after the initial fillip from $4k to $5k, there is a certain optimism in the air that 2019 could reverse the previous year’s trend that saw most cryptocurrencies lose more than 80% of their value. Charting specialists were quick to draw comparisons between the recent trend and the one in 2015-16, highlighting the similarities between them. The dominant street view is that the Bitcoin price rally is expected to hit strong resistance at $5200-$5300, followed by a price retracement back to the $4000s.

Another technical analysis expert who goes by the pseudonym, ScienceGuy9489, known for his accurate predictions during the 2017 bull run, predicts that if Bitcoin manages to break the $5260 price level, it will set off on a new bull run with big gains for traders.

None of this is investment advice, please consult your investment advisor etc etc, as we call out at the bottom of this post, but we think that retail as well as institutional FOMO chasing will really kick in once the price levels cross 6k and start moving up. Sustained volume increases will then be a catalyst that could even propel Bitcoin prices to north of 10k by early Q3. It is going to be an interesting summer in crypto..

Meanwhile in Crypto Wonderland….

“Mozilla’s New Update to Prevent Crypto Mining” Popular browser solution Mozilla Firefox is finally rolling out its long-awaited system for stopping internet baddies from secretly mining cryptocurrencies with your computing resources. As of today, users of Firefox‘ Nightly and Beta browsers are equipped with the option to automatically block crypto-jacking scripts (like the infamous CoinHive). In addition to illicit cryptocurrency mining, the latest Firefox update includes a feature to block “fingerprinting” scripts, which harvest snapshots of computer configurations that can be used to track internet usage (even if cookies are cleared).

“PDP Ditches YouTube to Join a Crypto-native Streaming Platform” PewDiePie, internet culture icon and the most popular streamer on the planet, is switching to DLive’s blockchain streaming platform. PewDiePie announced a partnership with DLive, a blockchain-based streaming platform built on the Lino test network, a “decentralized autonomous content ecosystem.” Beginning on April 14th, he will exclusively stream on the platform. In his announcement, Kjellberg alluded that his reasons for switching include YouTube’s high fees and lackluster incentivization mode. Meanwhile, he described DLive’s reward system as “revolutionary.”

“New Bill on Bitcoin” US Representative Warren Davidson has reintroduced the Token Taxonomy Act (TTA). The bipartisan bill will establish the “digital token” as a new digital asset class, exempting certain cryptocurrencies from federal securities laws and making them subject to a new tax structure. Representatives Davidson and Darren Soto initially introduced the bill in 2018 to prevent cryptocurrencies and digital assets from being classified as securities. The revised Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 (H.R. 2144) provides a more distinct definition of cryptocurrencies and would amend the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1940.

“IEO on OkEx Sells Out in a Second”Major cryptocurrency exchange OKEx just held its first token sale for the Blockcloud project and its native BLOC token on the OK Jumpstart platform, selling out their stash in a single second, according to a tweet from the exchange’s official Twitter account. Token trades are starting today. Blockcloud is a blockchain-based TCP/IP architecture, where TCP/IP is a suite of communication protocols used to interconnect network devices on the internet. “Combining the advantages of blockchain and Future Internet technology, it reconstructs the technology layers below where current blockchain networks and Internet applications operate,” explains the project’s website.

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This post does not constitute an offering of securities in any jurisdiction. The contents of this note should not be construed as investment advice or as a recommendation to purchase securities. This note is intended for the consumption of the recipient alone and not for public distribution. Please consult a certified financial advisor or other appropriate practitioner as may be appropriate as per your jurisdiction.

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